Windows Live Search Review + Search Share Predictions
Windows Live Search recently came out of beta and now powers search on MSN.com. According to September 19th ComScore numbers, MSN is down 3.3% in search share from August of 2005 to August of 2006. They're down 0.3% from July to August of this year.

I start with these numbers because, like your conversion rates by engine, search share is an important factor for deciding what engines to be concerned about in your marketing efforts.

I'd like to note at the outset too that when Microsoft launches Vista I think we'll see those numbers go up as they integrate Windows Live Search into users' daily work activities. I think adCenter's going to get lots more interesting for advertisers, though it's going to take awhile.

I've not seen it overtly stated that Windows Live Search will be a part of Vista, though it's been shown that Microsoft Embeds Windows Live Links in New Vista Builds.

According to the MSN Search blog there are six new aspects of Windows Live Search. I went through point by point and gave my thoughts on each.

All predictions below for the affects of the changes on MSN's search share are for the next three months. MSN has a long way to go before they become my default search engine, but these are some pretty interesting changes overall that should provide a more unified search experience and strong potential for integration with Vista.

1) "scope bar"
This function enables searchers to switch from image search to video search without having to reenter their query. Pretty basic stuff but important - by tying disparate search functions together it could serve to increase search share a little. I'll put it at a 0.1% increase.

2) "related searches"
The related search function helps users refine their searches. I see this as a Berkowitz addition, as its position and functionality is similar to Ask's concept zoom. It's a great way for MSN to get quick information about its relevance. I'm not able to discern if the WLS query refinements are derived from direct user behavior or a machine's estimation of concepts. I'll give this one a 0.1% increase too.

3) "image search"
WLS image search has endless scroll, which is nice for images. WLS used to have endless scroll for its web search results.

The MSN blog talks about image search features like "dynamic image resizing," "related people lists" and a "scratch pad" for saving your images for future reference. I saw nothing of these on my Oprah Winfrey search, perhaps because I'm not logged in. I'm curious about the scratch pad, whether these will become searchable in themselves. Companies like PreFound and JetEye have all-media scratch pads of sorts, as do Google and Yahoo.

Image search is one of the fastest growing areas of search right now, according to the CEO of Pixsy. I'll give these improvements a 0.1% increase in overall search share.

4) "local search"
Greg Sterling provided an excellent review of this aspect of WLS in Windows Live Local Better, But Still Not There. He notes that local results have been augmented with web results.

I don't see this coming anywhere close to Yahoo's local search, which enables users to add their own reviews to local business listings. I'm not going to allow any search share increase for this one.

5) "live QnA"
The Windows Live response to Yahoo Answers. And Google Answers. And many other live question and answer services before it.

This is a fun but unproven area of search in terms of monetization. I'd love to hear from Yahoo how Answers has affected searcher behavior, and what types of queries move from algorithmic search to Answers (Yahoo's down a .1% from July to August...). Like local, I don't think this will have a significant affect on search share.

6) "video search beta"
I'm not sure where they're getting videos - they appear all to be mainstream geneterated rather than user or amateur created as you're more likely to see on YouTube. Video search is big now - I think this will have a short term boost (three month) on search share but that it won't be sustained. .1% I'd say.

Overall
So, overall I think we'll see Windows Live Search increase by .5% in search share over the next three months. And when/if Windows Live search is integrated into Vista I think we'll see that search share increase, as will their adCenter offerings.

Resources:
Windows Live Search goes live
Who’s using Live Search?
Microsoft Upgrades Live Search Offerings
MSN Says Live.com Referral Bug "Not By Design"
Garrett French - MarketSmart Interactive | permalink | +marktd |